I will be doing them on a manual press and the shirts are going to cost me around 1.95 or so
That would be the "on sale" price which you should never use when pricing unless you are competing on a very large order against several other shops. The normal cost would be around 2.40 to 2.70 . So lets just use 2.40
First markup the shirt, as quantities go up, markup percentages go down. for a Quantity of 500 I markup them 70% so 2.40 + 70% = 4.08
Now we add the print charges. $0.40 for the one color and $0.55 for the two color = $0.95 in print charges + $4.08 = $5.03.
Now we add screens and flash charges. 3 screens @ $20.00 ea = $60.00 . 2 flashes at $0.20 ea * 500 shirts = $200.00
So we end up with $5.03 * 500 = $2515 + $60.00 = $2575 + $200 = $2775 / 500 = $5.55 each. If you are not bidding against other shops you could probably get 6 or 6.50 each.
Your cost for the shirts would be around $975 so $1800 for you before labor, inks and utilities.